George Smitherman is Making Friends

I was afraid of this happening.

Almost as soon as I learned that John Tory would futz around in his decision whether or not to run for mayor again until the new year, I was terrified that an opponent would hit the ground running, taking Tory's vital base out from under him. If anything would finish him before he started, it would be that.

And guess what? It's already happening.

Legally, Toronto candidates aren't allowed to formally declare their candidacy or start raising money until January 3rd. However, the law is quaint to the point of being adorable and virtually everyone is ignoring it. Former Ontario Liberal cabinet minister George Smitherman and Ignatieff bagman Rocco Rossi both declared in December, and Toronto's resident maniac, Geogio Mammolitti entered the race back in November. John Tory, meanwhile, continues to play Hamlet while Smitherman has gone a-courting in a rather surprising place.

Through most of its 128 years, the Albany Club, a storied bastion of Ontario Tory-dom would not have let George Smitherman – openly gay and, worse, openly Liberal – through its front door. But on this mid-December night, Mr. Smitherman is not just any guest. He's the guest of honour, the star attraction for a collection of Conservative curiosity-seekers.

The event, organized by prominent (and openly gay) Conservative strategist Jaime Watt, is billed as an opportunity to pay cross-partisan tribute to the former deputy premier's years of service in the provincial legislature. In reality, it's more of an opportunity to sell local Conservatives on the idea of Mr. Smitherman as their next mayor – a prospect that says much about what it now means to be a Tory in Toronto.

Entering the club still feels very much like entering the corridors of power; the dining room where Mr. Smitherman is being feted features elegant wood panelling, brass chandeliers, an ample supply of stained glass, a carving station and a bust of Sir John A. And although they're not all household names, the people who have gathered for the occasion – former provincial minister Rob Sampson, Common Sense Revolution architect Leslie Noble, former party president Rueben Devlin, Porter Airlines honcho Robert Deluce, former Globe editor-in-chief William Thorsell – fit that image.

Why Tory hasn't been living at the Albany Club for the last six months is beyond me. It certainly wasn't a secret that he was weighing another run at Nathan Phillips Square, even before the incumbent mayor, David Miller, announced his intention to flee for his own safety. Why not shore up his own natural base, if for no other reason than to avoid losing it before a campaign even begins?

Party politics aren't supposed to exist in the Toronto municipal politics, but of course they do. It isn't at all unusual for provincial and federal party machinery to get behind candidates, which is particularly helpful when it comes to things like fundraising. Smitherman, openly gay and openly Liberal, as the Globe points out, appears to be working hard for the support of the Big Blue Machine.

If he gets it, that leaves Tory with almost nothing. Sure, he might get the support of the faction of the Ontario Liberal Party that loathes Furious George for the way he left the McGuinty Cabinet, but the OLP is busy keeping the premier alive and propping up Ignatieff federally. Furthermore, they devoted three years to ruining Tory when he was Ontario PC leader.

I'll grant you that the Conservative establishment, as personified by the Albany Club, has it's share of problems with John;

By all rights, this should be the territory of John Tory, the prospective mayoral candidate who looks like he might have come into the world fully formed from one of the Albany Club's private lounges. But as much as a tribute to Mr. Smitherman, this event is a reaction against Mr. Tory's failings during his disastrous stint as leader of the Ontario Progressive Conservatives. Half the room (the half that's not composed of Liberals imported to fill the space) seems to tell the same story: They supported Mr. Tory the first time he ran for mayor, in 2003, but they can't do so again after what they've seen the past few years.

Horseshit. They'll support whoever they think can win and, despite his lackluster electoral record, John Tory is uniquely positioned to do that. Even though he's lost three out of four campaigns in the last decade, the hearts and minds of Torontoians essentially belong to John Tory, and the polling supports that. Ever since he stepped down as Ontario PC leader in March, virtually everyone in this city has been begging him to run for mayor again. To the best of my knowledge, no one thought to ask Smitherman about running until he himself started making noises about it a year ago.

John could have had the support of the Albany Club types anytime he asked for it. The problem is that he hasn't, and Furious George has. Without it, Tory has no solid base of political or fundraising support. I suppose he could self-finance, but that sends a message all it's own: That no one else will give him money.

I'd love to see John Tory become mayor of Toronto, but I'm increasingly convinced that he won't run, and can't win if he does. I intend to support him if he does get in the race because I think that he's a good and great man, but I'm not holding out any great hopes of a happy ending next October. Even with a first-rate political and fund-raising machine behind him, he has a long history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. God only knows what will happen what will happen without such a machine.